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by: Erich Reimer
Erich Reimer
Banks, ETF investing, tech
Marketplace
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( 1,720 followers)

Summary

GitHub's announced acquisition by Microsoft for $7.5 billion early last month increased hopes that this could jumpstart immense innovation for Microsoft's cloud, software, and Internet services segments.

The stock has been bumpy and in fact down since then, but I believe in the long-run GitHub could drive real acceleration in product capabilities that could boost Microsoft's competitiveness.

Microsoft's valuation metrics otherwise show a rightly-valued company and stable stock fundamentals, with low short interest and high institutional ownership.

Given that also most of Microsoft's business is relatively stable in Office and its diversified mix of other products, I believe downside risk is low besides amid broader market currents.

With the chance for some above-market innovative upside amid its low downside, I think the company is still a potentially positive risk-reward play even at its $760 billion+ market capitalization now.

Even as Microsoft's () stock has been flat or down this month since the GitHub acquisition, I believe in the long-term GitHub has significant chances in boosting a variety of Microsoft software and Internet services segments, even outside of cloud computing, to help it successfully compete and still grow.

Furthermore, Microsoft's valuation metrics, stock characteristics, and largely steady business outside of cloud all makes its downside risk low in my opinion aside from a market-wide downturn.

With Microsoft Azure and its cloud segment as a whole continuing to show strong expansion in a still-rapidly growing sector, with the low potential drop-risk, make it have an exciting upside that could manifest itself in significant gains.

(Source: The Verge)

GitHub, Cloud Computing, And Staying Competitive In A Constantly Rapidly Innovative Sector

Last month I discussed with members of Catwalk Black Wedge Heeled SlipOn footlocker pictures sale online discount collections shop PHPzP3hc
why I believe Microsoft's acquisition of GitHub could be disruptive to not only its cloud segment but all its software business lines. While Microsoft stock since then has been relatively stagnant, even declining slightly beyond the broader market indexes' declines.

I think however GitHub will begin to contribute slightly to Microsoft's bottom line itself as a segment in upcoming earnings quarters, but more particularly its innovative potential augmentation of the development of Microsoft's other software segments.

GitHub, as a hosting, development, and collaboration platform for code, is immensely valuable to Microsoft in its potential to push efficiencies and innovation. While the $7.5 billion cheap largest supplier Kenneth Cole REACTION Womens Michelle Kilty Toe Block Heeled Dress Pump Black buy cheap looking for free shipping visa payment free shipping browse low price fee shipping cheap online 9ydsWo472
high, that it will be in stock both lessens the otherwise potential debt burden on Microsoft and explains partially why the stock has been slightly depressed the past month.

Nonetheless, at a current market cap of over $766 billion the $7.5 billion in stock acquisition cost won't be much of a long-term transformation of shareholder equity.

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to fully close by the end of the year, we could see it begin to make an impact even sooner than expected.

Yet the primary benefit for GitHub remains in the long-run as a way to keep Microsoft's software capabilities competitive, particularly against its innovative challengers Amazon () and Google ( Adidas Top Ten 2000 Bright Lights Big City Pack Lakers clearance wide range of fashion Style online pick a best cheap price 44hM9bwh
) in cloud.

(Source: )

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, cloud computing has been immensely profitable for Microsoft as a high-margin product despite its current size. Just like with Amazon, cloud has helped even these massive companies see significant earnings growth even at their current enormous market caps.

The cloud computing sector is expected to continue to expand at rapid levels and Microsoft has been slowly gaining market share in it, even though with the vast amounts of sector growth happening market share is not as essential as for a mature industry.

GitHub's boost will slowly manifest itself over time in unpredictable ways, as innovation and research development often is a constant hit-or-miss chance cube. It likely still will have enough brain trust power to create major benefits to Microsoft's cloud computing competitiveness and even potentially its other various Internet services and software products, possibly including its unclear but NIKE Mens Tanjun SE Sneaker Bright Violet/Club Purple//Club Purple deals for sale j5oX15sh
the cryptocurrency and Blockchain sector.

Valuation-wise, Microsoft currently stands at a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 27.50 based on GAAP EPS of $3.60. There is only 0.73% in short interest and over 72.19% of the stock is held by institutions, which in my opinion demonstrates a firm and steady floor for the company's stock as well.

Even if significant accelerated growth does not materialize, the P/E ratio is only very slightly a growth-ratio and the stocks other characteristics do not give the appearance of major downside risk, barring market-wide downturns.

One market-wide factor that is currently creating wider turbulence and particularly among tech companies are tariffs. Though the global tariffs conflict could be disruptive to Microsoft activities in building its data-centers and the few hardware products it does shift, it seems at the moment many of its cloud computing, software, LinkedIn, and other product lines may not be affected significantly.

Conclusion

Overall, I believe Microsoft was already on a slight growth trajectory before GitHub's acquisition, due to the effect of its cloud computing segment and stability of its other business lines.

GitHub's acquisition upgrades that to a more moderate growth expectation, as GitHub could potentially create widespread and long-lasting innovative advancements that helps Microsoft compete in cloud and other software and Internet services business lines.

Furthermore, I see little downside risk in the company unless there is a wider market downturn in which case the company can only resist the tide so much. In the meantime it appears the company has strong institutional interest, low shorts, and a reasonable only-slightly-elevated valuation.

Combined with its massive steady business in Microsoft Office and its diversified mix of other products, a drop in earnings does not seem likely. And with the potential innovative gains from cloud, GitHub, and otherwise, it seems there is a real chance for above-market upside too.

I am/we are long FDN.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I hope you will give it a look

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Observational and Model Evidence for Positive Low-Level Cloud Feedback

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24 Jul 2009: Vol. 325, Issue 5939, pp. 460-464 DOI: 10.1126/science.1171255
Amy C. Clement
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, MSC 362, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
Robert Burgman
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, MSC 362, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
Joel R. Norris
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California-San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093–0224, USA.

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Positve Feedback

The uncertain effect of feedback between climate and clouds is one of the largest obstacles to producing more confident projections of global climate. Clement (p. ) examined how clouds, sea surface temperature, and large-scale atmospheric circulation vary in the Northeast Pacific region. Change in cloud coverage was the primary cause of sea surface temperature variations, and clouds provided a positive feedback to temperature variations. Furthermore, regional atmospheric circulation patterns were linked to patterns of cloudiness. One model produced realistic covariability between cloud cover, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric circulation for the 20th century.

Abstract

Feedbacks involving low-level clouds remain a primary cause of uncertainty in global climate model projections. This issue was addressed by examining changes in low-level clouds over the Northeast Pacific in observations and climate models. Decadal fluctuations were identified in multiple, independent cloud data sets, and changes in cloud cover appeared to be linked to changes in both local temperature structure and large-scale circulation. This observational analysis further indicated that clouds act as a positive feedback in this region on decadal time scales. The observed relationships between cloud cover and regional meteorological conditions provide a more complete way of testing the realism of the cloud simulation in current-generation climate models. The only model that passed this test simulated a reduction in cloud cover over much of the Pacific when greenhouse gases were increased, providing modeling evidence for a positive low-level cloud feedback.

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Vol 325, Issue 593924 July 2009

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Observational and Model Evidence for Positive Low-Level Cloud Feedback

By Amy C. Clement , Robert Burgman , Joel R. Norris

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